CRUDE 113.59 +0.26%; COTTON 97.01 +0.05%; BDI 1258 -3.82%

Brent crude rose in Asian trading on increased fears that Iran will disrupt oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to a risk premium of $4-$5 per barrel according to some market commentators. Further moves in the oil price are likely to be driven by noise out of Brussels and Washington surrounding the extent of any sanctions imposed against Iran. Watch out for the EIA’s release of US crude inventories today at 3.30pm GMT. A survey by Bloomberg suggests crude inventories are likely to show a 1 million barrel increase.

Cotton prices continued to increase driven higher by fears over India’s cotton crop to the highest settlement price since mid-November. Prices fell to $0.85/lb in mid-December and since then have increased by 14%.

The BDI continued to decline yesterday on post Christmas/New Year slow down in demand.

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CRUDE 113.09 +0.57%; COTTON 96.47 +0.03%; BDI 1308 -2.9%

Little market news driving Asian crude prices this morning; Brent WTI spread near record high of $20.

The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline yesterday and is down almost 14% over the past year on lower demand for grains and ore from China.

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Commodity Risk Economic Calendar 9th – 13th Jan 2012

(All times GMT):

Wednesday 11th January

15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 6th. The Latest report will be available here.

Thursday 12th January

TBC – Chinese CPI y-o-y: Inflation declined from 6.5% in August to 4.2% in December, 0.9% lower than December 2010. Further declines may be supportive of commodity prices should the Chinese government be able to relax monetary policy. CPI is forecast at 4%.

12:00 – UK base rate decision: Bank of England unlikely to change either the base rate from 0.5% or asset purchases from £275bn. Base rate forecast to stay unchanged at 0.5%.

12:45 – EURO interest rate decision: Interest rates were cut by 0.25% in November and then again in December leaving them at 1%. No further cut is expected at this meeting.

13:30 – US retail sales: Total sales value fell from 0.6% to 0.2% in the December report. January’s report will give an indication of sales over the Christmas period. Sales values rose by 0.5% in January 2011. This weeks report is forecast to show a 0.3% rise.

13:30 – US initial jobless claims: 372k people filed for unemployment insurance in the previous weeks report. This weeks report is expected to show a 375k increase. Six of the past nine reports have been showed jobless claims lower than forecast. See report here

13:30 – ECB press conference: Report can be found here

Friday 13th January

13:30 – US trade balance: The deficit increased last month to $43.5bn, up from $43.1bn the month before. The trade deficit is forecast to increase further to $44.6bn this month.

20:30 Commitment of Traders report: provides a breakdown of the previous Tuesday’s open interest. Report will be available here.

For more detailed information please see the Live Economic Calendar

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