Since the start of March soybean prices have rallied by 25% on poor weather in Argentina, putting more than 3 million tonnes of soybeans at risk. Heavy rainfall have damaged the crop while also making it more difficult to harvest. Argentina is the third largest producer of soybeans after China and the US.
However, history suggests that even with a disruption to supply the prospect for further gains are limited.
A cursory look at the relationship between the three main global agricultural crops (wheat, corn and soybeans) suggests that the price of wheat, and to a lesser extent corn is the main driver of substitution affects between crops.