Morning call: CRUDE 111.52 +1.06%; COTTON 95.65 -0.04%; BDI 1053 -4.71%

Crude rose in late Asian trading on geopolitical concerns after inflammatory comments from Iran’s governor to OPEC regarding the impact of any disruption in the Straits of Hormuz. Meanwhile Nigeria’s main labour unions suspended strike action in the OPEC oil producer.

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Commodity Risk Economic Calendar 16th – 20th Jan 2012

(All times GMT):

Monday 16th January

13:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: Following S&P’s downgrade of French and Austrian sovereign debt last week and bank deposits at the ECB reaching record levels, expect his speech to set the tone for market sentiment at the start of the week.

21:00 – China GDP estimates: Over the past year annual GDP growth has slowed from 9.8% in 2010Q4 to 9.1% in 2011Q3. Recent PMI data show manufacturing output contracted in November, the first time since 2009 so a slowdown in GDP in 2011Q4 is likely. 2011Q4 data is forecast at 8.8%. The latest data can be found here. A better than expected estimate may be bullish for commodities on improved demand in China.

Tuesday 17th January

05:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (6 month economic outlook): Business sentiment declined from 15.7 in February 2011 to -55.2 in November 2011 (a negative figure indicating pessimism) before improving slightly to -53.8 in December. A further improvement in sentiment is expected in the January report to -49.2. The latest data can be found here.

05:00 – Bank of England Governor speaks.

Wednesday 18th January

04:30 – UK claimant count change: This data measures the change in the number of people registering unemployed over the month. The claimant count has fallen from 37.1k in August 2011 to 3k in December. The claimant count is forecast to rebound slightly to 8k in January, see report here.

09:00 – IEA monthly oil report: Updated outlook for the oil market in 2012 and 2013 available here.

Thursday 19th January

08:30 – US month-on-month consumer price inflation (CPI): CPI is forecast to rise by 0.2%. A higher than expected reading may be taken as being bullish for the USD.

08:30 – US initial jobless claims: Measures the number of people who have registered unemployed during the past week. The latest week is forecast at 385k, down from 399k the previous week. A higher than expected reading is bearish for the USD. Latest data available here.

15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 13th. The Latest report will be available here.

Friday 20th January

04:30 – UK retail sales (m-o-m): Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.6% and will be a key bit of information to see how the high street has fared over the Christmas period. The latest data can be found here.

20:30 Commitment of Traders report: provides a breakdown of the previous Tuesday’s open interest. Report will be available here.

For more detailed information please see the Live Economic Calendar

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