Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino

This book will help you make better investment decisions in commodity markets. Find out which pundits and forecasters really know what they are talking about and track them. Understand the factors you can use to hold the ‘experts’ to account.


“A highly practical book that every investor and analyst needs to read several times….shows why investors need to do their own research, and not just follow the pundits” – Samir Madani, #OOTT & Tanker Trackers

“Essential reading for investors and executives” – Paul Hodges, International eChem

“Finally, an excellent book about forecasting that you enjoy reading while learning. Although it is a must read for investors and traders of commodities, students will benefit greatly from this book” – Anas Alhajji, Energy Outlook Advisors

“With technology, geopolitics, and economics colliding to make commodities a challenging place to invest, Peter’s timely book on the folly of commodity forecasting serves as a cautionary tale and a guide to preventing us from repeating the mistakes of the past.” – Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners

Peter Sainsbury tells the story of how dairy farmers in New Zealand, petrochemical companies in the US, miners in Canada have been affected by overly optimistic views on future commodity prices. This isn’t just a story of investors losing their money, but loss of communities and livelihoods and even whole economies usurped by just the expectation of a commodity boom.

Central to this is the power of the forecast in driving decision-making. All to often investors and executives outsource vital thinking to others they perceive have some edge in predicting prices, without really stopping and asking why, how and what if?

Do you rely on commodity price forecasts for your business or investments? Are you finding it ever more difficult to find out who is the voice of reason? Does relying on no one but yourself to research markets scare you?

In Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino, economist Peter Sainsbury shows how you can take back control. In these pages you’ll discover:
* Why incentives tell you everything about financial market pundits
* What warning signs to watch out for
* How to be a more sophisticated consumer of financial media
* What you can do to avoid your business, industry or country becoming a commodity “white elephant”.
* Why MiFID 2 will increase demand for transparency and evidence based forecasting.

Demand forecasts if you have to, but please demand better forecasts.